PRMIA Risk Management Frameworks, Operational Risk, Credit Risk, Counterparty Risk, Market Risk, ALM, FTP – 2015 Edition 8008 Exam Questions

Answer : B

The CDS rate is approximated by the [Loss given default x Default hazard rate]. Thus Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

Note that this is also equal to the credit spread on the reference bond over the risk free rate. Therefore credit spreads and CDS rates are generally the same. Also, 'loss given default' is nothing but (1 - Recovery rate). This can be substituted in the formula for the credit spread to get an alternative expression that directly refers to the recovery rate. Therefore all other choices are incorrect.

Answer : C

The difference between the yields on corporate bonds and the risk free rate is called the corporate bond spread. Widening of the spread means that corporate bonds yield more, and their yield curve shifts upwards, driving down bond prices. The increase in the spread is a consequence of the market risk from holding these interest rate instruments, which is a part of market risk. If the reduction in the value of the portfolio were to be caused by a change in the credit rating of the bonds held, it would have been a loss arising due to credit risk. Counterparty risk and liquidity risk are not relevant for this question. Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

Answer : C

The probabilities of default of the two bonds are independent (as indicated by a zero default correlation). The various possible states of the portfolio are as follows:

First bond defaults, and the second does not: Probability * Loss = 0.03*0.92 * $50m = $1.38m

Second bond defaults, and the first does not: Probability * Loss = 0.97*0.08 * $50m = $3.88m

Both bonds default: Probability * Loss = 0.03*0.08 * $100m = $0.24m

Thus total expected loss on this portfolio = $5.5m. Since recovery rates are not provided, those should be assumed to be zero.

There is an easier way to solve this as well: default correlation does not affect expected losses, but their volatility. You can calculate the expected losses of the two bonds and add them up, ie, $50m*0.03 + $50m *0.08 = $5.5m

Answer : A

The ISDA MA provides a template that can be used by market participants to document derivative transactions. It has a core section that applies always, and various schedules that can be agreed to by the parties. The ISDA MA considerably facilitates closing transactions once the ISDA MA has been has been negotiated, without requiring a renegotiation each time.

A key feature of the ISDA MA is that it binds all transactions into a single net obligation. The ISDA Master 2002 states that 'All transactions are entered into in reliance on the fact that this Master Agreement and all Confirmations form a single agreement between the parties ... and the parties would not otherwise enter into any Transactions.' Therefore transactions under the ISDA MA are not considered separate obligations.

The ISDA MA does indeed define close out processes, default and termination events, and the CSA is one of the parts of the MA that describes the collateral related agreement.

Answer : B

By assuming the assets to be independent, we are reducing the correlation from a positive number to zero. Reducing asset correlations reduces the combined standard deviation of the assets, and therefore reduces economic capital. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

Note that this question could also be phrased in terms of the impact on VaR estimates, and the answer would still be the same. Both VaR and economic capital are a multiple of standard deviation, and if standard deviation goes down, both VaR and economic capital estimates will reduce.

Answer : D

When modeling for operational risk, we are generally concerned with tail losses - this is because the horizon for operational risk is 1 year at the 99.9th percentile. Since the 99.9th percentile is in the tail region, we would like to ensure that the tails are modeled as accurately as possible. Operational risk distributions are modeled using heavy tailed distributions.

Heavy tailed parametric distributions such as log-normal, pareto and others are therefore a good choice for modeling risk severity, therefore statement I is correct.

Body-tail distributions are combinations of parametric distributions, with different types of distributions being used to model the body and the tail - this provides flexibility because small and medium losses upto a threshold can be modeled using one distribution, and losses beyond the threshold can be modeled using a different distribution that is a better estimate of the tail. Statement II is therefore correct.

A log-likelihood function simplifies the optimization of a regular likelihood function. We generally maximize (or minimize the risk functional) a likelihood function with a view to estimating the parameters of the underlying distribution. If the likelihood function is complex, it may sometimes make it mathematically easier to optimize the log of the function - as that changes exponents and multiplications to additions, while behaving in the same way as the underlying function. Therefore statement III is correct, log-likelihood is a means to estimate parameters for a distribution.

Statement IV is correct as body-tail distributions allow modeling different parts of the distribution differently from each other.

Answer : D

The key to pricing loans is to make sure that the prices cover expected losses. The correct measure of expected losses is the mean, and not the median. To the extent the median is different from the mean, the loans would be over or underpriced.

The loss curve for credit defaults is a distribution skewed to the right. Therefore its mode is less than its median which is less than its mean. Since the median is less than the mean, the bank is pricing in fewer losses than the mean, which means over the long run it is underestimating risk and underpricing its loans. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer.

If on the other hand for some reason the bank were overpricing risk, its loans would be more expensive than its competitors and it would lose market share. In this case however, this does not apply. Loan pricing decisions are driven by the rate of defaults, and not the other way round, therefore any pricing decisions will not reduce the rate of default.