PRMIA 8008 Exam Practice Test Instant Access

Question 1

Which of the following credit risk models relies upon the analysis of credit rating migrations to assess credit risk?

AKMV's EDF based approach

BThe CreditMetrics approach

CThe actuarial approach

DThe contingent claims approach

Answer : B

The correct answer is Choice 'b'. The following is a brief description of the major approaches available to model credit risk, and the analysis that underlies them:

1. CreditMetrics: based on the credit migration framework. Considers the probability of migration to other credit ratings and the impact of such migrations on portfolio value.

2. CreditPortfolio View: similar to CreditMetrics, but adds the impact of the business cycle to the evaluation.

3. The contingent claims approach: uses option theory by considering a debt as a put option on the assets of the firm.

4. KMV's EDF (expected default frequency) based approach: relies on EDFs and distance to default as a measure of credit risk.

5. CreditRisk+: Also called the 'actuarial approach', considers default as a binary event that either happens or does not happen. This approach does not consider the loss of value from deterioration in credit quality (unless the deterioration implies default).

Question 2

Which of the following should be included when calculating the Gross Income indicator used to calculate operational risk capital under the basic indicator and standardized approaches under Basel II?

AInsurance income

BOperating expenses

CFees paid to outsourcing service proviers

DNet non-interest income

Answer : D

Gross income is defined by Basel II (see para 650 of the Basel standard) as net interest income plus net non-interest income. It is intended that this measure should: (i) be gross of any provisions (e.g. for unpaid interest); (ii) be gross of operating expenses, including fees paid to outsourcing service providers; (iii) exclude realised profits/losses from the sale of securities in the banking book; and (iv) exclude extraordinary or irregular items as well as income derived from insurance.

What this means is that gross income is calculated without deducting any provisions or operating expenses from net interest plus non-interest income; and does not include any realised profits or losses from the sale of securities in the banking book, and also does not include any extraordinary or irregular item or insurance income.

Therefore operating expenses are to be not to be deducted for the purposes of calculating gross income, and neither are any provisions. Profits and losses from the sale of banking book securities are not considered part of gross income, and so isn't any income from insurance or extraordinary items.

Of the listed choices, only net non-interest income needs to be included for gross income calculations, and the others are to be excluded. Therefore Choice 'd' is the correct answer. Try to remember the components of gross income from the definition above because in the exam the question may be phrased differently.

Question 3

The sum of the stand alone economic capital of all the business units of a bank is:

Aless than the economic capital for the firm as a whole

Bmore than the economic capital for the firm as a whole

Cequal to the economic capital for the firm as a whole

Dunrelated to the economic capital for the firm as a whole

Answer : B

Economic capital is sub-additive, ie, because of the correlation being less than perfect between the risks of the different business units, the total economic capital for the firm will be less than the sum of the EC for the individual business units. Therefore Choice 'b' is the correct answer.

In practice, correlations are difficult to estimate reliably, and banks often use estimates and corroborate their capital calculations with reference to a number of data points.

Question 4

Calculate the 1-year 99% credit VaR of a portfolio of two bonds, each with a value of $1m, and the probability of default of 1% each over the next year. Assume the recovery rate to be zero, and the defaults of the two bonds to be uncorrelated to each other.

A1980000

C980000

D20000

Answer : C

This question requires the calculation of the credit VaR of the bonds - note that in the real exam the question may not refer to 'credit' VaR, but that can be inferred from the context, ie because the probability of default is provided, it can only be asking for the credit VaR. (Note the difference from the market risk VaR which is driven by interest rate changes affecting the value of the bonds - there are other questions addressing that calculation).

Credit VaR = Expected Value - Worst case portfolio value at the selected percentile (ie the confidence level)

Thus if we know the distribution of the portfolio value in the future, we can find out the value at the required percentile (in this case 99%), and the VaR will be the difference between this value and the expected value of the portfolio.

An important piece of information provided is that the defaults are independent, ie they are not correlated. This means joint probabilities of default or survival can be easily found by multiplying the relevant probabilities. The following outcomes are possible:

1. Both bonds default: Probability = 1% * 1% = 0.01%. Portfolio value = $0 (because both bonds have defaulted & there is zero recovery)

2. One bond defaults and the other survives: Probability = 2 * 1% * 99% = 1.98%. Portfolio value = $1m (because one bond survives with a value of $1m and the defaulted bond has a value of $0). (Note that because there are two ways in which this can happen, ie bond 1 defaults, bond 2 survives; and bond 1 survives, bond 2 defaults, we need to multiply the probability by 2).

3. Both bonds survive: Probability = 99% * 99% = 98.01%. Portfolio value = $2m.

Expected value is therefore $1.98m (which is equal to 2 * $1m * (1 - 1%), or alternatively can also be obtained by multiplying the probabilities in the above three outcomes with the value associated with each).

The future distribution of the value of the portfolio can be constructed from the three outcomes outlined above:

a. Upto the 98.01th percentile the value of the portfolio is $2m, and the VaR is zero (being greater than the expected value, so there is nothing to lose)

b. From the 98.01th percentile to the 99.99th percentile (98.01+ the next 1.98%), the value of the portfolio is $1m. VaR in this range is $0.98m (=$1.98m - $1m)

c. From the 99.99th to the 100th percentile the value of the portfolio is $0, and the VaR is $1.98m.

Since the question is asking for VaR at the 99% confidence level, it lies in the range in 'b' above, and therefore the VaR is $0.98m.

Therefore Choice 'c' is the correct answer and the rest are incorrect.

Question 5

Identify the correct sequence of events as it unfolded in the credit crisis beginning 2007:

I,Mortgage defaults increased

II,Collapse in prices of unrelated assets as banks tried to create liquidity

III,Banks refused to lend or transact with each other

IV. Asset prices for CDOs collapsed

AIII, IV, I and II

BI, III, IV and II

CI, IV, III and II

DIV, I, II and III

Answer : C

According to a paper by the BCBS, here is an excellent summary of what happened. Based on this, Choice 'c' is the correct answer.

'At the outset of the crisis, mortgage default shocks played a part in the deterioration of market prices of collateralised debt obligations (CDOs). Simultaneously, these shocks revealed deficiencies in the models used to manage and price these products. The complexity and resulting lack of transparency led to uncertainty about the value of the underlying investment. Market participants then drastically scaled down their activity in the origination and distribution markets and liquidity disappeared. The standstill in the securitisation markets forced banks to warehouse loans that were intended to be sold in the secondary markets. Given a lack of transparency of the ultimate ownership of troubled investments, funding liquidity concerns were triggered within the banking sector as banks refused to provide sufficient funds to each other. This in turn led to the hoarding of liquidity, exacerbating further the funding pressures within the banking sector. The initial difficulties in subprime mortgages also fed through to a broader range of market instruments since the drying up of market and funding liquidity forced market participants to liquidate those positions which they could trade in order to scale back risk. An increase in risk aversion also led to a general flight to quality, an example of which was the high withdrawals by households from money market funds.'

Question 6

Which of the following statements are true:

I,Pre-settlement risk is the risk that one of the parties to a contract might default prior to the maturity date or expiry of the contract.

II,Pre-settlement risk can be partly mitigated by providing for early settlement in the agreements between the counterparties.

III,The current exposure from an OTC derivatives contract is equivalent to its current replacement value.

IV. Loan equivalent exposures are calculated even for exposures that are not loans as a practical matter for calculating credit risk exposure.

AII and IV

BIII and IV

CI, II, III and IV

DII and III
Pre-settlement risk is the risk that one of the counterparties defaults prior to the date for the maturity of the transaction in question. This may be an unrelated default, in fact there may have been no default on that particular contract, but the party may have defaulted on its other obligations, or filed for bankruptcy. To deal with such cases and to protect the interests of both the parties, it is common to provide for immediate termination of positions and settlement based on the current replacement value of the contracts. Therefore statements I and II are correct.
Statement III is correct as well - the exposure from an OTC derivative contract derives from its current replacement value, and not the notional. If the current replacement value is negative, then the credit exposure is considered equal to zero.
Statement IV is correct as it is quite common to restate all exposures - those from credit lines, OTC derivatives etc - in loan equivalent terms prior to estimating credit risk.

Answer : C

Question 7

What is the combined VaR of two securities that are perfectly positively correlated.

AThe difference of the two VaRs.

BThe sum of the individual VaRs of the two securities.

CThe root of the sum of squares of the individual VaRs of the two securities.

DCombined VaR cannot be derived using the available information.

Answer : B

Choice 'b' is the correct answer. When two securities have a correlation of +1, they are effectively the same security. In such cases, the standard deviations of the two securities are additive, which means the VaRs can simply be added together to get the combined VaR. All the other choices are incorrect.

Choice 'c' in particular would have been correct if the securities were completely uncorrelated, ie if they had a correlation of zero.

Choice 'a' would have been correct if their correlation were -1.

PRMIA Risk Management Frameworks, Operational Risk, Credit Risk, Counterparty Risk, Market Risk, ALM, FTP – 2015 Edition 8008 Exam Practice Test